More than 50,000 Russian soldiers have deserted or gone absent without leave since Russia expanded its war on Ukraine three years ago, according to a new report from Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight. The report, based on leaked Russian documents, estimates that Russia has permanently lost up to 560,000 troops due to deaths, severe injuries, and desertions—nearly 10% of the total force.
Rising Desertion Rates Amid Prolonged Conflict
The desertion rate was initially low but grew as the war dragged on. Key moments, such as Ukraine’s successful 2022 counteroffensive and its stalled 2023 summer campaign, influenced the shifting morale within Russian ranks.
However, despite these desertions, the report suggests that Russia’s military structure remains intact. The estimated 5% desertion rate among Russian troops mirrors the rate seen among U.S. soldiers during the Vietnam War, a period that did not lead to a total breakdown of the American military.
Russia’s War of Attrition
While Russia has suffered immense losses for relatively modest territorial gains, it may still hold the upper hand in terms of manpower. The report estimates that Ukraine has lost up to 300,000 troops due to casualties and desertions.
One of the most striking cases of desertion came from Ukraine’s 155th Mechanized Brigade, which reportedly suffered severe losses and high AWOL rates upon arriving at the eastern front late last year.
As both sides continue to endure heavy losses, the war remains a brutal test of endurance, with no clear resolution in sight.
